America's 158 Most Evangelical Counties Shifted Toward Democrats in the 2026 Midterms

Every county in the nation’s top 5% by evangelical congregation membership moved toward Democrats in the 2026 midterms compared with the 2024 presidential election.

Across those 158 counties, Democratic margins improved by a weighted average of 16.2 percentage points. That exceeds the 14.5-point national average across all counties.

Most of these communities had strongly supported Donald Trump. He carried 155 of the 158 counties in 2024, and all 155 shifted toward Democrats in the 2026 races examined. Five went from a Republican presidential margin in 2024 to a Democratic margin in the unofficial 2026 results.

The pattern also appeared across a broader group of evangelical communities. Among the top 20% of counties by evangelical membership, 622 of 623 moved toward Democrats.

Separately, the analysis identified 208 counties across 20 states where evangelical congregation members accounted for a majority of residents, excluding counties where reported membership exceeded population. All 208 shifted toward Democrats.

Oklahoma and Kentucky each had 24 counties among the 158 most evangelical, followed by Texas with 21, Mississippi with 17, Alabama with 14 and Arkansas with 11.

Democrats gained support in communities that had strongly favored Republicans, though Republicans still won many of those counties.